Institutional Shield Holds

The most likely outcome is that Ali Akbar Ahmadian and the Supreme National Security Council signal that Abbas Araghchi acted within state-approved channels. Parliamentarians keep criticizing the U.S. contact, but the impeachment drive loses momentum because the SNSC endorsement makes removal politically costly.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.