Possible scenario
Independent Testing Default
35% Chance
The most likely outcome is that frontier labs preserve the new private safety body but harden it with more independent testing and disclosure. The JevBench result is damaging, but it is narrow enough that labs can respond by changing evaluation governance rather than halting model development.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Business Services +1.4%
Tickers
- ACN+1.5%
- GOOG-0.9%
- MSFT-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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