Possible scenario
Ban Holds Domestically
30% Chance
The administration maintains the prohibition, arguing that U.S. elections should be overseen by state and local authorities. State election officials, the National Association of Secretaries of State, party lawyers, and domestic NGOs fill some monitoring gaps, limiting immediate financial-market fallout.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.