Possible scenario
Allied Diplomatic Pushback
20% Chance
European allies and Canada publicly criticize the first U.S. OSCE exclusion since 2002, linking it to the administration’s broader retreat from foreign election-fairness assessments. The dispute damages U.S. democracy-promotion credibility but is unlikely to trigger economic retaliation in the near term.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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