Possible scenario
Republican Rebound
20% Chance
The early-vote swing overstates Democratic strength because Republican voters are disproportionately waiting until Election Day. The Texas GOP keeps its statewide streak alive, though margins are tighter than in prior cycles.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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