Possible scenario
Mixed Close Finish
30% Chance
The early-vote swing is real but not uniformly distributed across regions or offices. Democrats gain ground in the suburbs and large counties, while Republicans retain enough Election Day and rural strength to keep several statewide races competitive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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