Possible scenario
Democratic Breakthrough
42% Chance
The 19.3-point early-vote swing proves to be a real turnout signal rather than just a sequencing artifact. Democrats convert suburban gains around Dallas, Austin, Houston and San Antonio into their strongest statewide Texas showing in decades.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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