Possible scenario
Governance Bottlenecks
25% Chance
The system faces scrutiny over vote quality, bot manipulation, and whether agent-trained models overfit to leaderboard behavior. Adoption slows until RSI Arena and Hugging Face improve identity, audit, and safety controls.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.