Possible scenario
Brokerage Market Reshuffles
20% Chance
The launch becomes a distribution shock for online brokerages rather than a broad macro event. Brokers outside the initial X ecosystem respond with social-trading integrations, lower fees, or marketing campaigns to prevent Coinbase and the first partners from owning embedded order flow.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
- COIN+3.3%
- IBKR+1.7%
- RDDT+0.8%
- SCHW-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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