Possible scenario
Mediation Freezes Fighting
20% Chance
The rapid shift around Mekelle creates pressure for a political off-ramp. The African Union, IGAD, the United States, and the European Union push both sides toward a ceasefire framework before the conflict fully returns to a 2020-2022 pattern.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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