Possible scenario
Federal Control Consolidates
45% Chance
The Ethiopian National Defense Force takes Mekelle with limited urban fighting after the TPLF withdrawal. Addis Ababa restores a federal security administration, but the durability of control depends on whether TPLF units demobilize or disperse into rural Tigray.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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