Possible scenario
Weak Data Pulls Cuts
15% Chance
If upcoming data point to a sharper slowdown, markets could move beyond an October pause and begin pricing a December cut. That would pull yields and the dollar lower, but the equity reaction would depend on whether investors see the data as benign disinflation or genuine growth deterioration.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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