Possible scenario
October Hold Locks
55% Chance
The most likely path is that Warsh's refusal to flag an imminent hike is read as confirmation that the FOMC will pause in October. Softer core PCE and the prior minutes showing little urgency reinforce the market's hold pricing, keeping the dollar under pressure and front-end yields contained.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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