Possible scenario
Hawkish Pushback Returns
20% Chance
A meaningful minority outcome is that Warsh or other FOMC officials push back against aggressive hold pricing. This would reverse some of the dollar weakness and lift yields, especially if officials stress that inflation remains above target despite the latest PCE undershoot.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Utilities -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.