Possible scenario
Valuation Air Pocket
27% Chance
Weak breadth becomes the catalyst for a modest de-risking move after investors reassess how much of the index's value depends on a handful of AI-linked names. The selloff is not a systemic crisis, but it is broad enough to lift volatility and widen credit spreads slightly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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