Possible scenario
Prolonged Negotiations Continue
32% Chance
Trump raises the case directly, but Xi does not agree to immediate release. Beijing uses the case as leverage in broader talks over export controls, visas, Taiwan contacts, and U.S. treatment of Chinese nationals accused of technology theft.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.