Possible scenario
Regulators Scrutinize Swaps
18% Chance
Regulators focus on whether concentrated AI swap trading is creating opaque counterparty risk. The immediate effect is more disclosure requests, tighter margining, and a temporary reduction in dealer balance-sheet capacity rather than a formal rescue or ban.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Finance -0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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