Possible scenario
Credit Contagion Spreads
30% Chance
Investors treat the record swap volume as evidence that AI data-center credit risk is migrating from single names into the broader high-yield and private-credit complex. New issuance freezes and lenders demand wider spreads on data-center, GPU-leasing, and power-backed financings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.1%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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