Possible scenario
Protocol Is Revised
15% Chance
The Pentagon or Army leadership decides the controversy exposes weaknesses in military execution procedures. Officials keep Hasan's sentence intact but revise participation rules, chaplain guidance, or execution staffing requirements before proceeding.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.