Possible scenario
AUKUS Frictions Persist
25% Chance
The meeting produces cordial language but no definitive resolution of US concerns about submarine industrial capacity, export controls, and technology-sharing risk. Allies remain committed to AUKUS, but the absence of a clear Pentagon endorsement weighs on contractors most exposed to the program.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- GD-1.0%
- HII-0.8%
- LMT-0.2%
- RTX-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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