Possible scenario
Rescissions Broaden
20% Chance
OMB uses the successful execution of the second pocket rescission as a template for additional late-year funding cancellations. The next targets are likely discretionary grants tied to climate, equity, foreign assistance, universities, and migrant services.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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