Possible scenario
Courts Allow Withholding
35% Chance
Federal courts decline to immediately unwind the pocket rescission, citing the Supreme Court's recent posture on foreign-aid withholding and the narrow timing of the fiscal-year deadline. The Trump administration treats the decision as validation of Russell Vought's aggressive impoundment strategy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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