Possible scenario
Congress Absorbs Fight
30% Chance
Congress turns the rescission into a bargaining item in the next stopgap funding measure rather than confronting it through a standalone vote. Republican leaders avoid a direct rebuke of Trump, while Democrats use the episode to demand tighter anti-impoundment language.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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