Possible scenario
Talks Stall Again
20% Chance
The indirect channel remains formally alive but loses momentum as the U.S. and Iran trade accusations over sanctions, enrichment, and verification. Neither side chooses escalation, but the diplomatic window narrows into a holding pattern.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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