Possible scenario
Diplomacy Advances Slowly
45% Chance
Pezeshkian keeps political permission from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to maintain indirect talks, while Washington tests whether Tehran can deliver limits on enrichment. This is the most likely path because both governments have incentives to avoid an October crisis even as the Revolutionary Guard and U.S. deal critics attack the process.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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