Possible scenario
Pragmatic Bilateral Thaw
42% Chance
The visit becomes another step in the EU and German shift toward transactional engagement with Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Berlin and Ankara keep disagreements over rights and rule of law compartmentalized while prioritizing migration, trade, security and defense coordination.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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