Possible scenario
Runoff Stays Orderly
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the New York Fed's third straight month without new purchases is treated as a technical sign that reserves remain above the Fed's comfort zone. The FOMC allows balance-sheet runoff to continue at the slowed 2024 pace while stressing that money-market conditions remain stable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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