Possible scenario
Prolonged Gray Zone
30% Chance
Iran retains the vehicle and publicizes reverse-engineering claims while avoiding a direct lethal attack on U.S. forces. The U.S. Navy increases surveillance, cyber defenses, and convoy coordination, leaving the Gulf in a tense but contained standoff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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