Possible scenario
Military Escalation
25% Chance
The seizure becomes one element in a broader U.S.-Iran military confrontation after another maritime incident, mine strike, or drone engagement. Oil, volatility, defense shares, and safe-haven assets react sharply, though the most likely escalation remains limited rather than a declared war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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