Possible scenario
Managed Deconfliction
35% Chance
Washington and Tehran use Omani or Qatari channels to keep the drone seizure from becoming the trigger for direct naval combat. Iran extracts propaganda and technical value from the REMUS 600 but avoids an immediate clash while the Strait of Hormuz remains under heavy military pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Consumer Services +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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