Possible scenario
Abbott Narrowly Holds
42% Chance
Greg Abbott remains favored because of incumbency, Republican baseline strength in Texas, and a large fundraising edge despite polling weakness. Pritzker and DGA money helps Hinojosa stay competitive, but Abbott consolidates GOP voters late.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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