Possible scenario
GOP Holds Narrowly
33% Chance
The Democratic money advantage narrows the map but does not fully overcome GOP incumbency, candidate quality and presidential-year realignment patterns still present in some states. Republicans retain control with a reduced margin, forcing Democrats to defend gains without capturing committees.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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