Possible scenario
Guardrails With Controls
25% Chance
The U.S. and China maintain dialogue on AI safety while Washington refuses to relax advanced semiconductor export controls. This path is highly plausible because guardrails can coexist with strategic competition over compute, chips, and model capabilities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.6%
- NVDA-0.5%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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