Possible scenario
Consensus Succession Forms
45% Chance
EU governments treat Schnabel's departure as an orderly succession issue rather than a policy rupture. Christine Lagarde remains in place until 2027, while finance ministers and central-bank governors quietly narrow the field around experienced euro-area names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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