Possible scenario
Inflation Broadens Further
15% Chance
The CPI beat is interpreted as evidence that inflation is spreading beyond import costs into services and wages. This would make BOJ normalization more urgent and create a broader risk-off tone in Japanese assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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