Possible scenario
Gradual Policy Response
30% Chance
The inflation overshoot is treated as manageable because wage gains and fiscal support cushion households. The BOJ keeps a gradual normalization path rather than reacting abruptly to one metropolitan CPI report.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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