Possible scenario
Partisan Escalation
20% Chance
The order becomes a broader political fight over whether the Trump administration is using the military chain of command to influence turnout. Veterans groups, congressional committees, and state officials demand records on the stand down and any coordination with the White House.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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