Possible scenario
Partial Deal Negotiated
30% Chance
The likely compromise is a government-supervised arrangement that keeps Ukraine connected while limiting SpaceX's liability for direct weapons employment. Trump can claim he intervened, Musk can say restrictions were addressed responsibly, and Starmer can show allied pressure worked.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- VSAT+0.4%
- SPCX-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.