Possible scenario
Dispute Escalates Publicly
15% Chance
Musk resists a full reversal or the parties disagree over whether Starlink can be used for drone operations. The issue becomes a visible transatlantic dispute involving Trump, Starmer, Zelensky, and SpaceX.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
- SPCX-6.9%
- VSAT+2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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