Possible scenario
Access Restored Quickly
45% Chance
Trump follows through on his reported request to Elon Musk after direct pressure from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. SpaceX restores most Ukrainian Starlink functionality, avoiding a wider rupture with Washington, London, and Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX+3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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