Possible scenario
Policy Response Expands
18% Chance
EU governments move to prevent high refinery utilization from turning into a consumer-price or transport-cost problem. Measures could include strategic product stock releases, temporary fuel-specification waivers, or coordinated procurement from non-Russian suppliers.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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