Possible scenario
Diesel Market Tightens
25% Chance
The extension of Russia's diesel ban removes more barrels from the Atlantic Basin than European refinery runs can fully replace. Diesel cracks widen, freight rates for product tankers rise, and energy costs become a near-term headwind for transport and industrial users.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.