Possible scenario
Removal Fight Reopens
15% Chance
A smaller but still plausible path is that the administration treats the end of the criminal case as only one part of a broader campaign to challenge Powell’s position. This would revive market concerns about central-bank independence, though the March court ruling limits the administration’s legal room.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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