Possible scenario
DOJ Closure Holds
45% Chance
The Justice Department’s decision effectively ends the criminal track against Jerome Powell, leaving only administrative and oversight questions about the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation. Markets treat this as a modest reaffirmation of Fed independence and legal continuity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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