Possible scenario
Military Escalation
22% Chance
A collapse in diplomacy could push Israel, Iran, or aligned militias back toward direct military pressure. This is less likely than stalemate, but the prior missile exchanges and suspended talks make a renewed escalation a meaningful risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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