Possible scenario
Interim De-escalation
28% Chance
A limited bargain remains plausible because both Washington and Tehran have incentives to stop the war from widening. Vance's softer demand gives negotiators room to shift from full nuclear rollback to a verifiable freeze and temporary sanctions relief.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.1%
- Technology +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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