Possible scenario
Policy-Led Acceleration
25% Chance
Officials use the improved PMI as political cover to roll out more forceful fiscal and credit support. The recovery gains momentum into year-end, especially in infrastructure, advanced manufacturing and consumer durables.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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