Possible scenario
False Dawn
20% Chance
The September expansion proves temporary, driven by short-term inventory rebuilding or seasonal distortions rather than durable demand. Markets reassess the growth outlook and price renewed pressure on commodities, exporters and China-exposed cyclicals.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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