Possible scenario
Prolonged Intelligence Freeze
25% Chance
The allegation proves partly accurate, and some U.S. intelligence-sharing channels remain suspended while Washington demands assurances on Ukrainian long-range strikes. The freeze does not end U.S. support entirely, but it raises battlefield and civilian-defense risks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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