Possible scenario
Managed Intelligence Reset
45% Chance
The most likely path is a rapid effort by Washington and Kyiv to contain the dispute after the Kyiv residential strikes. U.S. officials deny a full cutoff or narrow the dispute to specific targeting channels, while Ukraine accepts clearer notification protocols to preserve air-defense and missile-warning flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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